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包括券商在内的机构,对2008年上证综指运行区间的预测,下限主要集中在4300点—4600点,上限主要集中在7000点—7500点。但从前5年预测结果看,上证综指最终的运行结果证明这些机构要么是太保守、要么是太乐观,还没有一次能说中的。从2003到2005年,上证综指均跌破多数机构预测的下限。而2006、2007年,上证综指又远远超越几乎所有机构预测的上限。即将到来的2008年,上证综指是否会再次让多数机构大跌眼镜?如果是这样的话,笔者认为上证综指很可能会突破下限。
Including the brokerage, agencies, the Shanghai Composite Index 2008 operating range of the forecast, the lower limit mainly concentrated in the 4300 -4600 points, the upper limit mainly concentrated in the 7000 -77500 points. However, according to the forecast results of the past five years, the final results of the operation of the Shanghai Composite Index prove that these institutions are either too conservative or too optimistic to say so. From 2003 to 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the lower limit of most agencies. In 2006 and 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index far exceeded the upper limit of almost all agencies. The upcoming 2008, the Shanghai Composite will once again let most agencies stunned? If so, I think the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to break through the lower limit.