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目的分析特定关键词的搜索引擎数据与流感病毒活动的相关性,探讨百度指数在流感监测中的应用。方法根据对流感确诊病例调查选择最优关键词,通过百度搜索得到各关键词的百度指数。并采用Spearman相关分析和数据移动对天津市2014—2015年流感流行季百度指数与哨点监测数据进行相关分析。结果流感确诊病例中65.04%(173/266)的人在出现症状后通过网络搜索引擎寻求过帮助。“感冒”作为关键词占比最高为67.72%(107/158)。关键词“发烧”的百度指数和阳性率的相关系数最高(r=0.808,P<0.05),阳性率向前移动1周,与“发烧”百度指数的相关性增加(r=0.827,P<0.05)。结论关键词“发烧”的百度指数能较好的反映和更早的预测流感病毒的活动。
Objective To analyze the correlation between search engine data of specific keywords and influenza virus activity and to explore the application of Baidu index in influenza surveillance. Methods Based on the investigation of the confirmed cases of influenza, the best keywords were selected, and the Baidu Index of each keyword was obtained through the Baidu search. Spearman correlation analysis and data movement were used to analyze the correlation between the Baidu index and sentinel surveillance data of 2014-2015 epidemic season in Tianjin. As a result, 65.04% (173/266) of those diagnosed in the flu sought help through the web search engine after symptom onset. “Cold ” as a keyword accounted for the highest 67.72% (107/158). The correlation coefficient between Baidu index and positive rate was the highest (r = 0.808, P <0.05), the positive rate was 1 week and the correlation with Baidu index of fever was increased (r = 0.827, P <0.05). Conclusion Key words “fever” Baidu index can better reflect and predict the activity of influenza virus earlier.