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有两种数学模型可用于表示癌症的各种生存曲线。这些模型对生存曲线分段,各段代表—亚群(Sub-po-pulation)。黑色素瘤的生存曲线有3个亚群,即复发后迅速死亡、复发后过一段时期死亡及既不复发也不死亡。本文提出的理论模型可对这些分段或亚群进行分析,并计算出曲线的危险函数(Hazard function)及可信区间。观察到的资料经计算机用最小二乘法处理可获得一些方程,选择其中残羞最小的一个。由此可得出曲线的几个分段,从每个分段可得出患者数、死亡率或复发率。倘若曲线有3个分段组成,则各段分别指高危险组、中危险组及低危险组。并可计算出与曲线斜率有关
There are two mathematical models that can be used to represent the various survival curves of cancer. These models subdivide the survival curve and each segment represents Sub-po-pulation. The survival curve of melanoma has three subpopulations: rapid death after relapse, death after relapse, and neither relapse nor death. The theoretical model proposed in this paper can analyze these segments or subgroups and calculate the Hazard function and confidence interval of the curve. The observed data can be processed by computer using the least square method to obtain some equations, and choose the one with the smallest reluctance. This results in several segments of the curve from which the number of patients, mortality, or recurrence rate can be derived. If the curve consists of three segments, the segments refer to the high-risk group, the middle-risk group and the low-risk group, respectively. Can be calculated with the slope of the curve