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近几年来,浙江对外贸易增速全国领先,规模位居全国前列,贸易顺差更是连续多年名列全国第一。浙江对外贸易的快速发展对推动经济增长起到了十分重要的作用。本文根据协整理论,利用浙江省1981-2003年统计数据,对浙江对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:从长期看,浙江经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在着长期稳定的关系,出口、消费和投资明显促进了经济增长,而进口对经济增长影响并不显著。从短期看,出口和进口共同对经济增长起促进作用。本文最后从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出浙江对外贸易实现可持续发展的对策建议。
In recent years, Zhejiang’s foreign trade has enjoyed a leading position in the growth rate of the country. Its scale ranks the forefront of the country and the trade surplus ranks first in the country for many years in succession. The rapid development of Zhejiang’s foreign trade has played a very important role in promoting economic growth. Based on the cointegration theory and using the statistical data of Zhejiang Province from 1981 to 2003, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between Zhejiang’s foreign trade and economic growth. The empirical results show that in the long run, there is a long-term and stable relationship between economic growth and exports, imports, consumption and investment in Zhejiang Province. Exports, consumption and investment have obviously promoted economic growth, while import has no significant effect on economic growth. In the short run, both exports and imports have contributed to economic growth. At the end of this article, we put forward the countermeasures and suggestions on how to realize the sustainable development of Zhejiang’s foreign trade from the macro, meso and micro levels.