论文部分内容阅读
近年世界粮食价格上涨对经济巨大影响,其中主要原因是生物燃料消耗了大量的粮食。本文介绍近来生物燃料发展的一些背景情况,再估计粮食对乙醇转化率发展的发展趋势,由此估计出粮食价格与原油价格间的长期均衡关系及短期修正关系。实证显示原油与玉米价格存在着协整关系,当前原油与玉米价格都偏高,存在回调动力。从长期看,玉米价格在未来一段时期内仍将维持在高位,而后逐渐下降。
In recent years, the impact of rising world food prices on the economy has been enormous. The main reason is that large amounts of food are consumed by biofuels. This article describes some recent developments in the development of biofuels, and then estimates the trend of development of the conversion of grain to ethanol, thus estimating the long-term equilibrium relationship between grain prices and crude oil prices and the short-term correction. The empirical evidence shows that there is a cointegration relationship between the crude oil and the corn price. Currently, the prices of crude oil and corn are both high, and there is a driving force behind the correction. In the long run, corn prices will remain at high levels for some time to come, and then gradually decline.