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我们收集了24家机构投资者(包括12家券商研究机构和12家基金)在12月底公布的2006年投资策略报告,并进行了比较研究。*目前经济已经处于回落周期,经济增长质量在变好,06年的GDP的增长率将放缓至8.7%左右,但是各家研究机构对上市公司盈利状况的预期分歧很大,同时这也是影响市场最主要的因素。*在考虑了A股的含权价值后,估值略有低估;其中蓝筹股低估稍多。市场众多机构对2006年市场的走势比较乐观,虽然很难出现牛市行情,但也会是长期牛市的开始之年。市场普遍认为2006年上证指数波动区间为1000-1400点。*各机构的策略报告中在对行业进行分析和对公司进行判断时,最严重的分歧是大多数的机构认为经济回落周期中应该回避周期性行业,应该首选防御性行业。但在市场上比较有影响力的申万、中金公司、交银施罗德基金则有不同的观点,同时,与2005年四季度策略报告相比较而言,2006年市场认为防御性行业面临价值高估的行业有所增多。*部分机构认为投资策略不在于行业的选择,而在于选择符合国家政策、符合未来经济发展方向的主题。金融市场的创新给证券市场带来巨大的制度性机会。*市场对各个行业的看法开始出现大大的趋同。在各个行业中,机构一致看好的行业:电力设备、传媒、公用事业、航天军工、软件;机构分歧相对较小:房地产、旅游、商业零售、通信、银行。其中看好是机构最新取得的共识。
We collected the 2006 Investment Strategy Report released by the 24 institutional investors (including 12 brokerage research institutes and 12 funds) at the end of December and conducted a comparative study. * At present, the economy is in a down cycle and the quality of economic growth is getting better. The growth rate of GDP in 2006 will slow down to about 8.7%. However, the expected disagreements among various research institutions on the profitability of listed companies are also significant The most important factor in the market. * Valuation undervalued slightly after taking into account the weighted value of A shares, with blue chips underestimating slightly. Many institutions in the market are more optimistic about the market in 2006. Although it is very difficult to have a bull market, it will also be the beginning of a long-term bull market. Market generally believe that in 2006 the Shanghai index fluctuated range of 1000-1400 points. * The most serious disagreement among the agencies in their strategy reports when analyzing and judging companies is that most agencies think that the cyclical industry should be sidestepped in the economic downturn and the defensive sector preferred. However, Shen Wan, CICC and Bank of Communications Schroder Fund, which have more influence in the market, have different opinions. Meanwhile, compared with the fourth quarter 2005 strategic report, the market in 2006 considered the defensive industry to face Overvalued industries have increased. * Some agencies think that the investment strategy is not based on the choice of the industry but on the theme of choosing a policy consistent with the national policy and in line with the future direction of economic development. Innovation in the financial markets has brought enormous institutional opportunities to the securities market. * Market perception of various industries began to show a significant convergence. In all industries, the institutions are generally optimistic about the industry: power equipment, media, public utilities, aerospace and military, software; institutional differences are relatively small: real estate, tourism, commercial retail, communications, banking. Among them, optimism is the latest consensus reached by the organization.