安史之乱是中国古代史上重要的研究课题之一,在该问题的考证上,本篇文章既充分总结前人研究成果,又根据恩格斯、汤因比等历史学家的观点,从偶然性因素(王忠嗣遭贬黜事件)改变唐廷兵制入手,对安史之乱爆发原因重新论证。但并非主张历史演进没有必然性和规律性,而是旨在说明偶然性在历史进程中的作用,历史的演进是必然性和偶然性共同作用的结果。 An Shih chaos is one of the important research topics in ancient Chinese history. On the research of this issue, this article not only sums up the achievements of the predecessors’ studies, but also analyzes the significance of the contingency factors according to the opinion of the historians such as Engels and Toynbee. Was relegated to events) to change the Tang Ting Bing system, re-proof of the reasons for the outbreak of the An Shi war. However, instead of advocating that historical evolution has no necessity and regularity, it does not advocate that contingency plays a role in the historical process. The evolution of history is the result of the inevitability and contingency.