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为更好地理解气候变化对沱沱河流域径流变化的影响,采用累积距平法、M-K检验和小波分析方法综合分析了沱沱河流域1961~2010年以来的气温、降水和径流深序列年际变化特征。结果表明,近50年以来,沱沱河流域气温、降水和径流深序列均呈不同程度的上升趋势,且分别以0.32℃/10a、8.7mm/10a、4.1mm/10a的速度上升;气温、径流深序列均有显著上升趋势,而降水的上升趋势不太显著;气温、降水、径流深序列分别在1999、2004和2007、2004和2007年发生突变;沱沱河流域水文气象要素呈现出多年周期不同尺度的振荡特性,气温、降水和径流深年代年际变化周期分别以25、20、22年为第一主周期。
To better understand the impact of climate change on runoff in the Tuotuo River Basin, cumulative anomalies, MK tests and wavelet analysis methods were used to comprehensively analyze the temperature, precipitation and runoff depth sequences in the Tuotuo River Basin since 1961 ~ 2010 International characteristics. The results show that over the past 50 years, the temperature, precipitation and runoff deep sequence in the Tuotuohe River Basin all showed different degrees of upward trend, and increased at a rate of 0.32 ℃ / 10a, 8.7mm / 10a and 4.1mm / 10a, respectively. The runoff depth sequences all showed a significant upward trend, while the upward trend of precipitation was not significant. The temperature, precipitation and runoff depth sequences changed respectively in 1999, 2004, 2007, 2004 and 2007, and the hydrological and meteorological elements in the Tuotuohe River Basin showed many years The oscillation characteristics at different scales of the cycle, the annual cycle of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the deep years take the first main period of 25, 20 and 22 years respectively.