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以中国女子中长跑年度最好成绩作为原始数据序列利用灰色马尔科夫模型进行建模、预测与分析,意在为中国女子中长跑运动的可持续发展提供参考依据.研究表明:灰色马尔科夫预测模型对中国女子中长跑成绩的预测具有更高的精确度与实用价值;通过对女子中长跑年度最好成绩的预测可知:中国女子中长跑与世界女子的成绩差距呈现出拉大的发展趋势,这将对其各项目的发展带来严峻挑战.
With the best results of Chinese women’s middle and long distance run as the original data series, modeling, forecasting and analyzing by means of gray Markov model, this paper aims to provide reference for the sustainable development of Chinese women’s middle and long distance running.Research shows that gray Markov The prediction model has a higher accuracy and practical value for the prediction of the performance of Chinese women’s middle and long distance runners. According to the prediction of the best result of the middle and long distance runners, the gap between the performance of Chinese women’s middle and long distance marathons and that of the world women shows a tendency of widening This will pose a serious challenge to the development of various projects.