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利用中国随机天气模型将国际气候变化委员会(IPCC)最新推荐的气候模式HadCM2和ECHAM4与作物模式CROPGRO940-Peanut相连接,模拟了未来4种气候情景下我国雨养和灌溉花生产量的变化趋势.结果表明,未来气候情景下,我国花生主要种植区雨养花生产量大都表现为不同程度的减产趋势,其中在华北地区减产幅度最大;灌溉花生在青岛、大连、沈阳等地区有增产趋势,在其他种植区则表现为不同程度的减产趋势,但减产幅度较雨养花生明显降低.若不采取减排CO2措施,2056年我国花生种植区花生产量较2030年减产程度更为明显;减排措施对不同种植区花生产量的影响不同.
Using the Chinese stochastic weather model, the climate models HadCM2 and ECHAM4 newly recommended by the International Commission on Climate Change (IPCC) were connected with the crop model CROPGRO940-Peanut to simulate the changing trend of rainfed and irrigated peanut production in the next four climate scenarios. The results showed that under the future climate scenarios, the production of rainfed peanuts in the main planting areas of peanut in China showed the tendency of decreasing production in varying degrees, of which the yield reduction was the largest in North China. Irrigated peanuts had the tendency to increase production in Qingdao, Dalian and Shenyang, However, the rate of decrease was significantly lower than that of rain-fed peanut.If CO2 reduction measures were not adopted, the reduction of peanut production in peanut-growing areas in 2056 was more significant than that of 2030 in 2056. The emission reduction measures were different for different regions The impact of peanut production in the planting areas is different.