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石油储备在国民经济的发展和国家经济安全中起着极为重要的作用,文章构建了具有石油替代品和关税配额政策影响的石油储备模型,分析了石油替代品和关税配额政策对石油储备规模、补仓速率和释放速率等一些储备策略的影响机理,并设置了三种不同的情景对模型进行了数值分析。结果表明:石油替代能力的减小将会导致国家最优石油储备规模的增大和石油释放速率的减小;石油进口配额的减小将会引起国家最优石油储备规模的增大、石油补仓速率的急剧减小和石油释放速率的小幅下降。
Petroleum reserve plays an extremely important role in the development of national economy and national economic security. The paper builds a petroleum reserve model with the influence of petroleum substitute and tariff quota policy, analyzes the effect of petroleum substitute and tariff quota policy on the scale of petroleum reserve, The mechanism of some reserve strategies such as the rate of opening and release, and the setting of three different scenarios for the numerical analysis of the model. The results show that the reduction of petroleum substitution capacity will lead to the increase of the national optimum petroleum reserve and the decrease of the petroleum release rate. The reduction of the oil import quota will cause the increase of the optimal petroleum reserve of the country, A sharp decline and a slight drop in the rate of oil release.