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在近年提出的“一带一路”战略带动下,我国的进出口贸易必将发生不小的变化,进出口贸易的变动将促进产业结构的优化。根据2004—2013年中国对东盟十国的商品进出口额数据,采用回归分析方法,同时根据2014年12月至2015年5月中国对东盟十国进出口额月度数据,采用灰色预测模型,得出以下结论:初级产品进口比重的增加会减少第一产业的比重,工业制成品进口比重和工业制成品出口比重的增加都会带来第二产业比重的增加。随着战略进程的加快,贸易进出口总额将会持续增长。最后,就我国把握好“一带一路”发展机遇,利用进出口贸易的增长促进产业结构的优化提出建议。
Under the strategy of “One Belt and One Road” proposed in recent years, there will surely be no small change in the import and export trade in our country. The change in import and export trade will promote the optimization of the industrial structure. According to the data of China’s import and export of goods to ASEAN countries from 2004 to 2013, the regression analysis method was used. Based on the monthly data of China’s import and export volume to ASEAN from December 2014 to May 2015, gray forecasting model was used The following conclusions are drawn: The increase of the import proportion of primary products will reduce the proportion of the primary industry, the proportion of the import of industrial products and the proportion of the export of manufactured goods will all increase the proportion of the secondary industry. As the strategic process accelerates, the total volume of trade imports and exports will continue to grow. Finally, on the opportunity of our country taking advantage of the development opportunities along the Belt and Road and using the growth of import and export trade to promote the optimization of the industrial structure, we put forward suggestions.