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本研究基于房地产景气循环理论,结合我国房地产市场运行特点,构建了我国房地产市场运行景气评价指标体系,并运用扩散指数法和合成指数法进行了实证研究。研究的一个创新点是将政策因素定量化并引入房地产景气评价指标体系中。实证研究结果表明:本研究构建的先行指数、同步指数和滞后指数较好地反映了我国房地产市场运行状况;在研究时间段内(2007年1季度～2010年4季度),我国房地产市场历经10个季度完成一个景气循环,分别在2007年3季度和2010年1季度达到景气顶峰,在2008年4季度到达景气谷底.实证研究结果表明,房地产建设投资活动将在2011年上半年末进入不景气区间且表现为景气下降,需要引起政策层面的关注。
Based on the real estate cycle theory and the characteristics of the real estate market in our country, this study constructs the evaluation index system of the real estate market in our country and conducts an empirical study using the diffusion index method and the composite index method. An innovation of the research is to quantify the policy factors and introduce the index system of the property boom evaluation. The empirical results show that: the leading index, the synchronization index and the lagging index constructed in this study better reflect the real estate market in China. During the research period (1Q 2007 ~ 4Q10), the real estate market in our country lasted for 10 A quarter to complete a business cycle, respectively, in the third quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2010 reached its peak, reached the bottom of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2008. Empirical results show that real estate investment activities will enter the downturn in the first half of 2011 Range and showed a decline in the economy, need to draw the attention of the policy level.