根据综放面巷道自燃环境及条件 ,提出自然发火预测思路、预测方法 ,以及煤层自燃特性参数和现场参数的定量测算方法 ;建立了巷道煤层自燃危险程度和最短发火期的预测模型 ;最后通过东滩矿 4 30 8综放面沿空轨顺的实际模拟及预测 ,证明其预测精度达 90 %以上 According to the environment and conditions of coal spontaneous combustion in fully mechanized caving mining roadway, the forecasting and forecasting methods of spontaneous combustion and the quantitative calculation method of spontaneous combustion parameters and site parameters are put forward. The prediction model of spontaneous combustion dangerous degree and the shortest firing time is set up. Finally, The actual simulation and prediction of the track along the empty track in 4308 fully mechanized top-coal caving mining area show that the prediction accuracy is over 90%