国内台风暴潮预报,绝大多数仍处于经验预报阶段,只报一个极值.随着科学技术的不断发展,已渐进为台潮机制研究,开始对过程预报进行探讨,以求在理论上阐明台潮生成的运动过程,并改进预报精度和增长预见期.本文通过海水滞留现象,用水动力学的方法,推导出一套台风暴潮过程预报方程,并考虑到浅海地形和涨落潮的影响,提出应用本方程应注意的问题.由于台风暴潮形成的自然条件十分复杂,加上目前台站的 Most of the typhoon storm surge forecasts in China are still in the stage of empirical prediction and only reported an extreme value.With the continuous development of science and technology, the study has been gradually conducted for the mechanism of the Taiwan Strait, and the process forecasting has been started to be explored in theory And the forecasting accuracy and growth forecasting period are improved.This paper deduces a set of forecast equations of typhoon storm surge process by the phenomenon of seawater retention and hydrodynamics and takes into account the influence of shallow sea topography and fluctuation tide , Put forward the problems that should be noticed when applying this equation.Due to the complicated natural conditions caused by typhoon storm surges and the current station