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根据河北省1971-2010年冬小麦春季霜冻害灾情资料、逐日气象资料,建立了以气温稳定通过12℃为临界期的冬小麦霜冻害判别指标;分析了霜冻害时空变化特征;根据灾害风险分析原理,建立了霜冻害风险指数,进行了相应的风险区划,并初步探讨了霜冻害对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明:河北省霜冻害以轻度为主,90年代以后发生霜冻害的站点数年际间变化幅度较90年代以前明显增大,站点数量明显增多;霜冻害总站点数存在明显的4a、7a和11a周期,90年代中期以后7a周期消失,11a周期逐渐缩短为8a周期;霜冻害高发区分布在邯郸、邢台、保定西北部以及沧州和衡水两市的部分地区,低发区分布在唐山、秦皇岛地区;霜冻害风险以中度和低度为主,中度风险区分布在邯郸西部、邢台大部、沧州南部、保定西北部,其它麦区大部为低风险区。霜冻害影响冬小麦产量的形成,发生强度与冬小麦气象产量呈负相关(r=-0.346)、与减产率呈正相关(r=0.342)。
According to the data of winter frost disaster in winter from 1971 to 2010 in Hebei Province and daily meteorological data, the identification index of winter wheat frost damage with the temperature stable passing 12 ℃ was established. The temporal and spatial variation of frost damage was analyzed. According to the disaster risk analysis principle, The risk index of frost damage was established and the corresponding risk zoning was carried out. The effects of frost damage on winter wheat yield were also discussed. The results showed that the frost damage in Hebei Province was dominated by lightness, and the interannual variation of the number of frost damage occurred in the 1990s was significantly larger than that before the 1990s, with a significant increase in the number of frostbite stations. And 11 a cycles, disappeared in the 7a cycle after the mid-1990s, and the 11a cycle was shortened to the 8a cycle. The high frost damage areas were distributed in parts of Handan, Xingtai, northwestern Baoding and Cangzhou and Hengshui, Qinhuangdao area; the risk of frost damage is moderate and low. The moderate risk areas are located in the west of Handan, most of Xingtai, southern Cangzhou and northwest of Baoding. Most of the other wheat areas are low-risk areas. The formation and occurrence intensity of winter wheat under frost damage were negatively correlated with the meteorological yield of winter wheat (r = -0.346), which was positively correlated with the yield reduction (r = 0.342).