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为分析不同因素对城陵矶水位变化的贡献率,基于1955~2014年实测水文资料,利用Mann-kendall检验法、回归分析等方法分析城陵矶水位变化特征及其成因。结果表明,下荆江裁弯和葛洲坝的运行对城陵矶水位流量关系造成较大影响,同流量下城陵矶水位增幅明显,而三峡水库对城陵矶水位流量关系影响不大;1972~2002年水位流量出现“此消彼长”的现象,主要是因为干流顶托作用加强和断面逐年淤高对水位的抬高值大于因流量减小对水位的减小值所致;城陵矶水位于1967年发生突变,这与1967年中州子裁弯有一定联系,而四水入湖流量的减少是1977年流量发生突变的主要原因;通过构建模型,计算得出下荆江裁弯、葛洲坝和三峡水库的运行在各自所在时期对城陵矶水位变化的贡献率分别为50.3%、50.5%、56.8%。
In order to analyze the contribution of different factors to the change of water level in Chenglingji, based on the measured hydrological data from 1955 to 2014, the characteristics and causes of the water level changes in Chenglingji were analyzed by Mann-kendall test and regression analysis. The results show that the operation of Xiajing River and Gezhouba Dam have a great influence on the relationship between the water level and the flow rate of Chenglingji. The water level of Chenglingji increases obviously under the same flow rate while the effect of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the water level and discharge of Chenglingji is not significant. The phenomenon of annual shift of water level “shifting in ” phenomenon is mainly due to strengthening the role of mainstream water chestnut and cross-section siltation of the water level elevation is greater than the decrease of the flow rate due to the reduction of the water level; The change of Rocky water level in 1967 has some connection with the reduction of Zhongzhou Zi in 1967. The decrease of the flow rate of the four water into the lake is the main reason for the sudden change of flow in 1977. By constructing the model, The contributions of Gezhouba and Three Gorges Reservoir to the changes of Chenglingji water level during their respective periods were respectively 50.3%, 50.5% and 56.8%.