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根据国内外研究结果综合分析，得到ＣＯ２倍增时江苏省温度、降水的变化值，初步确定了ＣＯ２倍增时江苏省小麦生长季内的可能气候情景。分析未来ＣＯ２倍增时对小麦作物的直接影响、间接影响及紫外辐射影响。具体估算了温度升高、降水增加、ＣＯ２浓度上升、紫外辐射增强后江苏省小麦生育期不变和生育期缩短两种情景下的气候生产潜力，并由此分析了气候变暖对江苏省不同地区的利弊影响。结果表明：江北大部分地区小麦产量有所增加，江淮南部部分地区和苏南将减产。在此基础上用模糊聚类分析方法对ＣＯ２倍增时江苏省小麦气候进行区划，并对未来江苏省调整种植制度，发展农业生产提出一些建议。
According to the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign research results, the change of temperature and precipitation during the doubled CO2 in Jiangsu Province was obtained, and the possible climate scenarios during the growing season of wheat in Jiangsu Province were preliminarily determined. Analysis of the direct impact of future doubling of CO2 on wheat crops, indirect effects and UV radiation. This paper estimates the potential of climate production in two scenarios: temperature rise, precipitation increase, CO2 concentration increase and wheat growth in Jiangsu Province unchanged after growth period is shortened. Based on this, the climate change potential in Jiangsu Province is analyzed. The pros and cons of the area. The results showed that the output of wheat increased in most parts of Jiangbei and the output in southern part of JAC and southern Jiangsu would be reduced. On this basis, fuzzy cluster analysis is used to divide the climate of wheat in Jiangsu Province during the doubling of CO2, and some suggestions are put forward for future adjustment of planting system and development of agricultural production in Jiangsu Province.