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当前世界经济新显现的风险具有两个突出特点。一是不可预测性加大。石油价格暴跌、瑞士法郎骤然升值、卢布贬值,中东和乌克兰局势还会演化出什么突发事件?二是呈现出了分裂趋势。部分国家陷入通货膨胀,另一部分国家深受通货紧缩折磨。一些经济大国的央行几乎已经用尽促进复苏的手段,单个国家政策运作空间大大压缩,而需求疲软、失业加剧却成为多数经济体面对的普遍现象。
The current emerging risks in the world economy have two salient features. First, the unpredictability increases. The sudden drop in oil prices, the sudden appreciation of the Swiss franc, the devaluation of the ruble, and the unexpected developments in the Middle East and in Ukraine will result in a split trend. Some countries have fallen into inflation, while others have suffered from deflation. The central banks of some big economies have almost exhausted the means to promote recovery. The space for the operation of individual countries’ policies has been greatly reduced. The weak demand and the increase in unemployment have become the common phenomenon confronted by most economies.