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利率是金融市场的核心变量之一,当前互联网金融的快速发展对传统金融市场产生了较大冲击。选取第三方互联网市场交易规模(TPO)衡量互联网金融规模,运用向量误差修正模型等方法实证研究了互联网金融对利率的影响。结果发现,第三方互联网市场交易规模与利率之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,TPO是利率R变动的格兰杰原因。互联网金融是利率变化的显著影响因素,且其影响程度在M2,GDP和通货膨胀之上,仅次于利率自身的影响。这表明互联网金融已经渗透到金融市场的核心领域。货币当局在制定对策时既应鼓励金融产品创新,也要防范金融风险发生,通过适当调控互联网金融发展规模,使互联网金融朝健康有序的方向发展,最终达到对利率进行间接调控的目的。
Interest rate is one of the core variables in the financial market. The rapid development of Internet finance has had a great impact on the traditional financial markets. Third party Internet market transaction scale (TPO) is chosen to measure the scale of Internet finance, and the impact of Internet finance on the interest rate is empirically studied by using vector error correction model and other methods. The result shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the trading scale and the interest rate of the third-party Internet market. TPO is the Granger reason for the change in the interest rate R. Internet finance is a significant factor in the change of interest rates, and its influence is above M2, GDP and inflation, second only to the impact of interest rate itself. This shows that Internet finance has infiltrated the core areas of financial markets. Monetary authorities should not only encourage financial product innovation but also prevent financial risks when formulating countermeasures. By properly controlling the scale of Internet finance development, Internet finance will develop in a healthy and orderly direction and eventually achieve the purpose of indirectly controlling interest rates.