论文部分内容阅读
[目的 /意义]构建一个引擎技术预见模型(ITFM),可用于预见引擎技术。[方法 /过程]该模型包含四类指标:技术生命周期(专利演化)、国际环境、合作(专利权人合作网络)和影响力。通过专家咨询选择生命科学领域的四个技术用于验证分析,并对ITFM模型进行量化,其中DNA重组技术(Rb DNA)和单克隆抗体技术(mAb)作为引擎技术,发酵技术(FT)和ELISA诊断技术(ELISA)作为非引擎技术对照组。[结果 /结论]引擎技术进入成熟期后专利数量稳定在一定的水平;重大政策、计划和规划往往会推动引擎技术的快速发展;引擎技术的专利合作程度更高;引擎技术的专利件均被引频次更高。合成生物学技术(SynBio)被用于开展实证分析,实证分析表明,ITFM模型可揭示出合成生物学技术尚处于发展的成长期,具有演化为引擎技术的潜力。
[Purpose / Significance] Build an Engine Technology Foresight Model (ITFM) that can be used to foresee engine technology. [Method / Process] The model includes four categories of indicators: technology life cycle (patent evolution), international environment, cooperation (patent owner cooperation network) and influence. Four experts in the field of life sciences were selected to validate and analyze ITFM models through expert consultation. Among them, Rb DNA and mAb were used as engine technology, fermentation technology (FT) and ELISA Diagnostic technology (ELISA) as a non-engineered technology control group. [Results / Conclusions] The number of patents kept stable at a certain stage after the maturity of engine technology; major policies, plans and plans tend to promote the rapid development of engine technology; the degree of patent cooperation of engine technology is higher; the patent of engine technology Cited times higher. SynBio has been used to conduct empirical analysis. Empirical analysis shows that the ITFM model reveals that synthetic biology is still in its infancy and has the potential to evolve into engine technology.