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铁路运输具有单路径固定性特征。借鉴公路四阶段法的成熟思路,本文采用定性与定量相结合的综合运量预测方法,对成都铁路局的中长期路网规划中的运量进行了预测,即运用SPSS软件定量预测出趋势运量和利用在跨越式发展背景下的专家意见定性预测出转移运量和诱增运量。最后,在此预测运量的基础上提出了成都铁路局在中长期的通道加强序列和重载高速的运输发展策略。
Rail transport has the characteristics of a single path fixed. By drawing lessons from the mature idea of highway four-phase method, this paper predicts the traffic volume of medium and long-term road network planning of Chengdu Railway Bureau by using the integrated traffic forecasting method combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, that is, using the SPSS software to quantitatively predict the trend transport Quantitative and utilize the experts’ advice in the context of leapfrog development to qualitatively predict the amount of transfer and increase of capacity. Finally, on the basis of the predicted traffic volume, it puts forward the strategy of strengthening the sequence and heavy-haul high-speed transportation development of Chengdu Railway Administration in the medium and long term.