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预期对房地产行业调控政策的实施效果有着重要的作用。一般来说,从形成机制可以把预期分为静态预期、外推型预期、适应性预期和理性预期,而我国的房地产市场因其特殊性,是介于适应性预期与理性预期之间的准理性预期。通过建立住房价格调控模型并进行实证分析后,可以发现准理性预期是一种效果较好且与实际更相符的预期;预期是影响房价的最主要因素,而预期对于房价的放大效应和预期的不稳定性又使得政策调控增加了一定的难度;房价基本上与预期成正比关系。
It is expected to play an important role in implementing the regulation and control policies of the real estate industry. In general, from the formation mechanism can be divided into static expectations expected, extrapolated expected, adaptive expectations and rational expectations, and China’s real estate market due to its particularity, is between the expected adaptive and rational expectations of the quasi-between Rational expectations. Through the establishment of housing price regulation model and empirical analysis, we can find that the quasi-rational expectation is a better and more realistic expectation; expectation is the most important factor affecting the housing price, while the expected magnifying effect on the housing price and the expected Instability also makes the policy control has increased a certain degree of difficulty; prices are basically in proportion with the expected relationship.