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中国宏观经济近十多年的运行当中,依稀可见周期性现象。自2001年以来,中国经济共经历了四个半宏观经济短周期,平均每个周期14个季度,目前中国经济正处于第五个周期的波峰阶段。价格类变量(房价和CPI、PPI)的周期性运动轨迹清晰且鲜有违背周期运动规律的现象;金融类变量(M2)和销售变量(商品房销售)的周期性运动轨迹清晰度次之;产出和投资变量(工业增加值、GDP、新房开工)的周期性运动轨迹更加模糊。驱动经济短周期运行的力量是信贷、房地产市场与货币政策之间的反馈机制。这种反馈机制也暗含了M2、商品房销售、房地产价格、房地产投资、工业增加值增速以及CPI等宏观经济变量之间有规律的领先滞后关系。不确定的冲击或者是其他我们尚不能很好理解的因素可能会破坏周期运行轨迹,周期会被扭曲但不会消失,变量之间有规则性的领先滞后关系可能被打破但仍然是大概率事件。
China’s macroeconomic operation over the past decade, faintly visible cyclical phenomenon. Since 2001, the Chinese economy has experienced a total of four and a half macroeconomic short cycles, averaging 14 quarters per cycle. At present, the Chinese economy is in the peak stage of the fifth cycle. Cyclical motion trajectories of price-class variables (house price and CPI, PPI) are clear and rarely violate the law of periodic motion; the cyclical trajectories of financial variables (M2) and sales variables (commercial sales) The cyclical trajectory of output and investment variables (industrial added value, GDP, new home starts) is more blurred. The power driving short-cycle economy is the feedback mechanism between credit, real estate market and monetary policy. This feedback mechanism also implies a regular lead lag between M2, real estate sales, real estate prices, real estate investment, growth of industrial added value and macroeconomic variables such as CPI. Uncertain shocks or other factors that we may not yet understand well may disrupt the cycle trajectory, the cycle will be distorted but will not disappear, and the leading lag relationship between the variables may be broken but still a high probability event .