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文章运用经济重心模型,分析2003~2012年中国经济重心迁移的特征及其均衡性,并结合经济增长理论,采用Granger因果检验和结构向量自回归分析影响中国经济重心迁移均衡性的因素,结果表明:(1)中国经济重心迁移已呈现出半均衡化的趋势;(2)中国经济重心迁移在东西方向上呈半均衡化趋势的影响因素包括政府消费重心、R&D资本存量重心、从业人员重心和物质资本存量重心的经度变动;(3)中国经济重心在南北方向上呈半均衡化趋势的影响因素则包括从业人员重心、人力资本重心和财政支出重心的纬度变动。
Based on the economic growth theory, Granger causality test and structural vector autoregressive analysis were used to analyze the factors affecting the balance of China’s economic center of gravity migration using the economic center of gravity model. The results show that : (1) The migration of China’s economic center has shown a semi-equilibrium trend; (2) The factors influencing the semi-equilibrium trend of China’s economic center of gravity migration in the east-west direction include: the center of government spending, the center of R & D capital stock, the center of gravity of employees (3) The influencing factors of the semi-equilibrium tendency of China’s economic center of gravity in the north and south direction include the latitude of employees’ center of gravity, the center of human capital and the center of fiscal expenditure.