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中国政府大规模支出应对这次影响深远的金融危机,但这种积极的财政投入会不会挤出外商直接投资?就目前来看,学术界对此问题缺乏令人信服的深入研究。本文针对此问题进行实证检验,以期能较好回答政府支出是否会挤出FDI。研究结果揭示,二者之间不仅存在协整关系,还存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,即FDI是政府扩大支出的格兰杰原因,而政府扩大支出并不是引致FDI流入的格兰杰原因。这说明总体来看,政府支出不是挤出FDI的内在原因,但两者存在的负向协整关系说明,政府支出对FDI的抑制作用还是客观存在的。此外,本文还进一步把政府支出分成几个部分来分别检验其与FDI的关系,实证结果显示,政府生产性支出会明显挤出FDI,而科研支出不仅不会挤出反而对挤入FDI有积极意义。
The large-scale Chinese government’s response to this far-reaching financial crisis, but this positive financial investment will squeeze out of foreign direct investment? For now, the academic lack of convincing and in-depth study of this issue. This paper conducts empirical tests on this issue, with a view to better answer whether government spending will squeeze FDI. The results reveal that there is not only a co-integration relationship between the two, but also a one-way Granger causality, that is, FDI is the Granger reason for the government to expand spending, and the government to expand spending is not the Granger cause FDI inflow the reason. This shows that government spending is not the intrinsic reason for FDI. However, the negative cointegration relationship between the two shows that there is an objective existence of government spending on the suppression of FDI. In addition, this article further divides government spending into several parts to test its relationship with FDI respectively. Empirical results show that government productive expenditure will obviously crowd out FDI while scientific expenditure will not only be squeezed but will be positive for FDI significance.