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瑞士桥梁管理系统以构件的状态演变为基准进行桥梁评估。为了预测任意构件在任一时刻的状态情况,采用马尔可夫链法建立构件混凝土龄期与状态情况之间的关系式。通过数值模拟方式建立理论模型,以氯化物腐蚀为例,对比马尔可夫链法与理论模型计算结果,并总结马尔可夫链法在预测构件的状态演变方面的优劣性。
The bridge management system in Switzerland evolves into a bridge assessment based on the evolution of the component’s status. In order to predict the condition of any component at any moment, Markov chain method is used to establish the relationship between component concrete age and condition. The theoretical model was established by numerical simulation. The chloride corrosion was taken as an example. The Markov chain method was compared with the theoretical model to calculate the results. The advantages and disadvantages of Markov chain method in predicting the state evolution of components were summarized.