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对以往曾出现过ＡＦＰ低浓度阳性的肝癌高危人群进行了为期一年的前瞻性随访研究，根据基线危险因素水平、流行病学调查资料及随访结果拟合肝癌早期发病因素的Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归模型。结果表明对肝癌早期发病有显著影响的因素为血清ＡＦＰ、ＡＦＵ、γＧＴ、ＡＫＰ、ＡＬＴ浓度以及慢性肝炎史、肝硬化史、肝癌家族史等，其中仍以ＡＦＰ的作用最大，其次为ＡＦＵ、γＧＴ以及慢性肝炎病史。在控制年龄因素后，进入多因素Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归模型的变量为ＡＦＰ、ＡＦＵ、γＧＴ、慢性肝炎病史以及肝癌家族史，即对于３０～５９岁的男性ＨＢｓＡｇ携带者（高危人群）来说，随着上述各项指标的出现，其发生肝癌的危险性将明显增加。
A one-year prospective follow-up study was conducted on the high-risk groups of HCC with low AFP positive levels in the past. A logistic regression model for the early onset of HCC was constructed based on baseline risk factors, epidemiological survey data, and follow-up results. The results showed that the factors that significantly affect the early onset of liver cancer were serum AFP, AFU, γ-GT, AKP, ALT concentration and chronic hepatitis history, liver cirrhosis history, family history of liver cancer, etc. Among them, AFP still had the greatest effect, followed by AFU. , γ GT and history of chronic hepatitis. After controlling for age factors, the variables that entered the multivariate Logistic regression model were AFP, AFU, γ-GT, chronic hepatitis history, and family history of liver cancer, that is, for male HBsAg carriers (high-risk groups) aged 30-59 years. With the appearance of the above indicators, the risk of developing liver cancer will increase significantly.