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次贷风波后弱于预期水平的美国最新经济数据加剧了市场担忧,美国经济“衰退论”大量涌现,这种极端化观点最大的弊病在于混淆了短期波动和长期趋势。结合美国经济结构特征、演化历史和最新变化,本文认为美国经济在长期内进入衰退的可能性较小,最根本的原因在于美国消费并没有出现长期萎靡的趋势,而具有易变性的投资放缓很可能是造成短期GDP增长率下降的重要因素,影响力相对较小且本身波动较大的净出口则不可能对美国长期经济增长造成较大打击。
The latest economic data in the United States, which is weaker than expected after the subprime mortgage crisis, exacerbated the market fears and the U.S. economy was experiencing a large number of “recessions.” The biggest drawback of this extreme point of view was the confusion of short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. Combined with the characteristics of the U.S. economic structure, the evolutionary history and the latest changes, this paper argues that the fundamental reason why the U.S. economy is in a recession in the long run is less likely is that the U.S. consumer spending has not shown any long-term sluggishness while the volatile investment slowdown It is likely to be an important factor contributing to the declining short-term GDP growth rate. Net exports with relatively little influence and large fluctuations in itself are unlikely to have a major blow to the long-term U.S. economic growth.