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本文采用我国国家自然科学基金1998-2010年的相关数据,从空间距离的角度分析了科学基金面上项目在不同省域之间的空间分布特征,运用空间统计的方法着重考察了科学基金的空间相关性,并对基金申请和资助活动空间分布趋势进行了预测。结果表明,国家自然科学基金面上项目申请活动已经表现出显著的空间集聚效应,资助活动尚未呈现出显著的空间集聚效应。但如果基础研究活动以现有的速度持续向东部沿海省份集聚,我国基础研究在2015年左右将从现有的非均衡多点式分布模式改变成非均衡单点式分布模式。
Based on the data of National Natural Science Foundation of China from 1998 to 2010, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of scientific fund projects in different provinces from the perspective of spatial distance, and empirically examines the space of scientific funds using the method of spatial statistics Correlations and projections of the spatial distribution of fund applications and funding activities. The results show that the NSFC project application activities have shown significant spatial agglomeration effects, and funding activities have not yet shown a significant spatial agglomeration effect. However, if basic research activities continue to accumulate at the existing pace in the eastern coastal provinces, China's basic research will change from the existing non-equilibrium multi-point distribution model to a non-equilibrium one-point distribution model around 2015.