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*经历了2004年全球经济的高速增长后,2005年出现了经济减速的迹象,IMF在4月13日发布的全球经济展望中,估计全球经济增长将从2004年的5.1%降至4.3%,美、德等国的经济领先指标均出现疲软趋势。*由于经济活动减速、升值预期影响,原材料、生产价格和消费价格的“剪刀差”将出现逐渐减小的趋势,升值效应显然有助于降低PPI水平,这将对依赖于投资和价格上涨因素的经济周期敏感型行业产生不利影响,而有利于减少不敏感型的行业生产成本,改善经营环境。*股权分置试点引发的市场下跌决不是非理性行为,而是由于试点企业的补偿不足,以及全市场的补偿预期较低引发的。投资者信心不足导致了市场大幅度下跌。期望通过股权分置的改革难以创造大牛市。*在股票投资上,建议重点关注非周期敏感性行业和非贸易品行业(餐饮旅游娱乐、航线机场、容器与包装、银行、普通零售业、家庭耐用消费品、电子和电器设备、农业食品生产、公路运输、生物制药、饮料业等),重点关注具有竞争优势的企业。
* After the rapid global economic growth in 2004, there was a sign of economic slowdown in 2005. In its global economic outlook released on April 13, the IMF estimated that global economic growth will drop from 5.1% in 2004 to 4.3% The leading economic indicators of the United States, Germany and other countries are showing signs of weakness. * The “scissors gap” between raw materials, production prices and consumer prices will show a gradual downward trend due to the slowdown of economic activity and expected appreciation of the value. Appreciation effect apparently helps to reduce the level of PPI, which will affect the growth of the market depending on the factors of investment and price hikes Economic cycle-sensitive industries have an adverse impact, but will help reduce the production costs of insensitive industries, improve the business environment. * The drop in markets triggered by the pilot share-splitting experiment is by no means irrational but due to the under-compensation of pilot enterprises and the relatively low expectation of compensation in the entire market. Investors lack of confidence led to a sharp decline in the market. Hope that through the split share structure reform is difficult to create a bull market. * In stock investment, it is recommended to focus on non-cyclical sensitive industries and non-trades (catering, tourism and entertainment, route airports, containers and packaging, banking, general retail, household consumer durables, electronics and electrical equipment, agricultural food production, Road transport, biopharmaceuticals, beverages, etc.), with a focus on competitive enterprises.