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本文运用葛兰杰因果关系检验法对国际市场棉花价格与世界主要棉花生产国的棉花生产量和主要棉花贸易国①的棉花贸易量之间的因果关系进行了检验,并对存在因果关系的变量进行了回归分析,研究结果表明:国际市场棉花价格与世界主要棉花生产国的棉花生产量之间存在反向变动关系,而与世界主要棉花贸易国的棉花贸易量之间的关系不确定。对棉花进口需求量较大的国家而言,其在棉花的国际市场上并不遵循一般意义上的定价规律。
This paper tests the causal relationship between the cotton price in the international market and the cotton production in the world’s major cotton producing countries and the cotton trade volume in the major cotton traders, using the Granger causality test. The causal variables The regression analysis shows that there is a reverse relationship between cotton prices in the international market and cotton production in the world’s major cotton-producing countries, while the relationship with the cotton trade volume of the world’s major cotton-trading countries is uncertain. For countries with large import demand for cotton, they do not follow the general pricing rules in the international cotton market.