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货币搜寻理论为货币、物价与资产价格三者之间的非线性关系提供假说,使货币当局便于在不同经济状态中把握干预物价与资产价格的时机。在此理论基础上,笔者构建MS-VAR模型并进行实证检验,结果表明:在股票市场低迷时期,货币供应量和利率调节都可以对股票市场产生影响;在股票市场繁荣时期,更适宜使用利率手段抑制资产价格上涨。我国央行应在必要时干预资产价格,并注意多种工具的协调使用以及总量调控与价格调控在不同时期的各有侧重。
The monetary search theory provides a hypothesis for the non-linear relationship between money, prices and asset prices so that monetary authorities can easily grasp the timing of intervention in price and asset prices in different economic situations. Based on this theory, the author constructs the MS-VAR model and conducts an empirical test. The results show that in the stock market downturn, both the money supply and the interest rate adjustment can affect the stock market. In the boom of the stock market, it is more appropriate to use the interest rate Means to curb asset prices. China’s central bank should intervene in the price of assets when necessary, and pay attention to the coordinated use of various tools as well as the overall control and price control in different periods of different emphases.