针对梯级水电站合约电量调度中众多不确定性因素导致的调度风险,在合约电量确定与时段内电量分解研究的基础上,通过调度风险因子的辨识及风险指标的量化计算,提出了梯级水电站合约电量调度风险预警机制。案例分析结果表明,梯级水电站合约电量风险预警机制可有效融入调度决策者的风险偏好和利益趋势,使刚性计划与柔性决策有机耦合,实现了调度效益和调度风险的平衡,为水电在电力市场的竞争提供了借鉴。 Aiming at the dispatch risk caused by many uncertain factors in the contracted power dispatching of cascaded hydropower stations, based on the research of contracting electricity quantity and power decomposition in time period, this paper proposes the identification of risk factors and the quantitative calculation of risk index, Dispatch risk early warning mechanism. The case study shows that the early warning mechanism of the contracted electricity consumption of cascaded hydropower stations can effectively incorporate the risk preference and the trend of interest of the decision-makers, so that the rigid and flexible decisions can be organically coupled to achieve the balance between the scheduling benefits and the scheduling risks. Provide a reference for competition.