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为了解析通勤者的行为决策机理,通过分析吉林市居民出行调查数据,运用分群持续时间模型(SPD模型)对通勤者下班后非工作活动的参与以及活动开始时间进行分析,检验了通勤者的社会、经济及出行特征等属性对活动驻停及非工作活动开始时间的影响。结果表明:应用SPD模型,能区分出在非晚高峰从单位至家途中的非工作活动,提高预测结果的准确性,也可有效预测不同群体的通勤者非工作活动参与的时间,为交通管理部门制定需求管理措施从而引导通勤者出行提供理论依据。
In order to analyze commuter behavior decision-making mechanism, this paper analyzes commuter travel survey data and uses the group duration model (SPD model) to analyze commuter commuting non-work activities after work and start time, , Economic and travel characteristics and other attributes on the activities of non-stop activities and the start of the impact of time. The results show that using SPD model can distinguish non-work activities from unit to home on non-late-night peak and improve the accuracy of forecasting results. It also can effectively forecast the participation time of non-work commuters in different groups, Departments to develop demand management measures to guide commuters to provide a theoretical basis for travel.