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转移支付已成为我国县级财政支出的主要来源,占县级财政支出大约50%。但目前学界对转移支付稳定财政支出的效应鲜有研究。为此,本文利用1993—2006年全国31个省、市、自治区2860个县(区)的面板数据,把偏离趋势值变动比率作为因变量,运用固定效应模型和Prais-Winsten模型,实证分析转移支付对县(区)财政支出稳定效应的影响。本文的实证结果表明:①转移支付对县(区)财政支出有较大的抑制作用,在财政支出处于上升阶段实现了逆向操作,在稳定县(区)财政支出方面发挥了有效的作用,体现了制度的正确性和有效性。②但是在财政支出下降阶段,转移支付可能降低县(区)财政支出的稳定性,此时需要严格规范转移支付和财政支出。该结果还提醒我们需要进一步修正转移支付的体系设计。
Transfer payments have become the main source of county-level fiscal expenditures in China, accounting for about 50% of county-level fiscal expenditures. However, there are few researches on the effect of transferring payment to stabilize the financial expenditure in the academic circle at present. Therefore, in this paper, panel data of 2860 counties (districts) in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 1993 to 2006 were used as the dependent variable and the fixed effect model and the Prais-Winsten model were used to empirically analyze the transfer The Impact of Payment on the Stabilization Effect of County (District) Fiscal Expenditure. The empirical results show that: ①transfer payment has a great inhibitory effect on the county (district) financial expenditure, reverse operation in the period of rising expenditure, and plays an effective role in stabilizing the county (district) financial expenditure, and reflects The system is correct and effective. ② However, in the stage of declining fiscal expenditure, transfer payments may reduce the stability of county (district) financial expenditures. In this case, transfer payments and financial expenditures need to be strictly regulated. The results also remind us of the need for further revision of the system design for transfer payments.