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近年来,我国投资占GDP的比重一直处于高位攀升趋势。高投资模式在拉动经济增长的同时,也伴随着投资低效、产能过剩等突出问题。值得一提的是,与投资高速增长并存的还有市场利率的显著上行和货币总量的不断扩张,“融资难、融资贵”等结构性矛盾愈加明显。本文创新性地综合运用残差分析、弹性分析和面板数据的格兰杰因果检验等方法,考察了我国上市公司过度投资的微观行为与利率变动、货币总量扩张等宏观变量之间的关系。实证研究发现,我国上市公司存在着较普遍的过度投资行为,且国有企业相对更容易发生过度投资;过度投资企业对利率的敏感性也相对更低,甚至还呈现出利率上升时投资亦上升的“非理性”特征;此外,货币过度扩张的宏观环境还可能会进一步诱发微观企业的过度投资行为。上述研究结果或可为未来货币政策调控、国企改革等提供实证方面的决策参考。
In recent years, the proportion of China’s investment in GDP has been at a high level of upward trend. While high investment patterns are driving economic growth, they are also accompanied by such prominent problems as inefficient investment and overcapacity. It is worth mentioning that, alongside the rapid growth of investment, there has also been a marked upward trend in the market interest rate and the continuous expansion of the total amount of money. The structural contradictions such as “financing difficulties and high financing costs” have become even more conspicuous. In this paper, we synthetically use the Granger causality test of residual analysis, elasticity analysis and panel data to examine the relationship between macro behavior of overinvestment and macroeconomic variables such as the change of interest rate and the expansion of the total amount of money in listed companies. Empirical studies have found that listed companies in our country have more common overinvestment behavior, and state-owned enterprises are relatively more prone to overinvestment. Overinvestors are also relatively less sensitive to the interest rate, and even show an increase in investment when the interest rate rises “Irrational ” characteristics; In addition, the macro-environment of monetary over-expansion may further induce micro-enterprises over-investment behavior. The above research results may provide some empirical reference for the control of monetary policy and the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future.