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在经济增速没有大幅上升、电源建设速度没有明显下降和计划电量放开时间不变的条件下,3~5年之内,中国电力市场将迎来一场大溃败,一塌糊涂的大溃败。这里的电力市场特指发电侧,尤其是以煤电为主的发电企业,未来几年内将不可避免地面对大面积亏损和电厂倒闭潮,其惨烈程度可与当前煤炭和钢铁行业相比,还可能更甚。先看看这两组数据:山西省当前电力总装机近7000万千瓦,而全省最大用电负荷2200万千瓦!甘肃省电力总装机5000万千瓦,全省最大用电负荷不足2000万!尽管两省都有几百万千瓦外送电量,但仍杯水车薪,这种产能过剩程度不能不令人咋舌!
Within 3 to 5 years, the power market in China will usher in a big defeat and a complete collapse in a big slump when the economic growth rate has not risen sharply, the speed of power supply construction has not dropped significantly and the scheduled power release time has not changed. The power market here, especially power generation side, especially coal-based power generation enterprises in the next few years will inevitably face a large area loss and plant closures tide, the tragedy compared with the current coal and steel industries, It may be even worse. First look at these two sets of data: Shanxi Province, the current total installed capacity of nearly 70 million kilowatts, while the province’s largest electricity load of 22 million kilowatts! Gansu Province, the total installed capacity of 50 million kilowatts, the province’s largest electricity load of less than 20 million! Although Both provinces have several million kilowatts outside the power transmission, but still a drop in the bucket, this excess capacity can not be staggering!