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制订放射防护标准和估计各种受照事件造成的健康危险需要了解人体及有关器官所接受的剂量与诱发的损害效应之间的关系。放射生物学和放射防护界已建立了几种剂量—效应关系模型(线性的和非线性的),但没有一种被公认为确定的模型。本文讨论了目前危险估计的不确定性和局限性;说明了用于受照事件卫生评价的危险估计有别于用于防护标准的危险估计。也讨论了将“线性、无阈”模型用于放射防护的优点和弱点,以及如何避免或减少危险估计造成的判断性差误。
The development of standards of radiation protection and the assessment of the health risks posed by various exposure incidents need to understand the relationship between the dose received on the human body and the organs concerned and the effects of the damage induced. There are several models of dose-effect relationships (linear and non-linear) that radiobiology and radiation protection have established, but none have been identified as definitive models. This article discusses the uncertainty and limitations of the current risk assessment and shows that the risk estimates used for health evaluation of irradiated events are different from the hazard estimates used for protection criteria. The advantages and disadvantages of using a “linear, thresholdless” model for radiological protection are also discussed, and how to avoid or reduce judgmental errors caused by risk assessment.