通过引入变异系数、基尼系数和泰尔指数刻画长三角地区八个城市房价差异的动态突变过程,从而建立了含突变点的变结构面板协整模型,探究房价变化的主要原因,实证研究表明:长三角地区的八个城市的房价的差异在限购令政策出台之后明显减小;房产税政策对房价作用不明显,但限购政策却使房价明显下降,且限购政策改变了利率和房价的关系,使得紧缩性货币政策由无效变得有效;房价、物价指数和贷款利率均是不稳定变量,且三者之间不存在明显的协整关系,但存在以限购令出台时间为突变点的带有水平漂移和协整向量漂移的变结构协整关系。 By introducing the coefficient of variation, the Gini coefficient and the Theil index, the dynamic mutation process of housing price difference in the eight cities of the Yangtze River Delta is described. The covariation model of variable structure panel with mutation point is established to explore the main reasons for the change of housing price. Empirical studies show that: The difference of housing prices in the eight cities in the Yangtze River Delta decreased significantly after the restriction order policy was introduced. However, the effect of the property tax policy on housing prices was insignificant, but the restriction policy resulted in a significant drop in housing prices. Moreover, the restriction policy changed the relationship between interest rates and house prices, Making the tightening of monetary policy from invalid to become effective; price, price index and lending rates are unstable variables, and there is no obvious co-integration between the three, but there is a restriction order issued by the time with the mutation point Variable Structure Cointegration Relationship between Horizontal Drift and Cointegration Vector Drift.