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国际油价波动对我国经济运行带来一些的影响。本文建立了包含第二产业比重、第三产业比重、正向的油价冲击以及负向的油价冲击四变量的VAR模型,并使用我国数据对此模型进行了实证检验。实证研究结果表明,油价的正向冲击会降低第二产业在国民经济中的比重、增加第三产业的比重。而油价的负向冲对产业结构的影响程度要小于正向冲击的影响程度,并且不显著,油价冲击对产业结构的效应存在着非对称性。
The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economic Operation in China. This paper establishes a VAR model that includes the proportion of the secondary industry, the proportion of the tertiary industry, the positive impact of the oil price and the negative impact of the oil price on the four-variable VAR model. Empirical tests are conducted on this model using our data. The empirical results show that the positive impact of oil price will reduce the proportion of the secondary industry in the national economy and increase the proportion of the tertiary industry. The negative impact of oil price on industrial structure is less than that of forward impact, and it is not significant. The effect of oil price shock on industrial structure is asymmetric.