本文根据文献[1,2,3]对砼徐变所做的试验研究资料,针对实际工程中不可能对砼的长期徐变做出试验量测的具体情况,提出通过砼的短期试验数据、利用数学上的Bayesin统计方法,推知砼可能产生的长期徐变值的思路.以便对一些徐变敏感结构做出徐变预测,然后采取相应的措施,消除或减缓徐变对砼结构可能带来的不利影响. Based on the experimental research data of the literature [1,2,3] on creep and creep, this paper proposes to pass the short-term test data of the concrete for the specific circumstances in which it is impossible to test the long-term creep of concrete in actual projects. Using the Bayesian statistical method of mathematics, we infer the idea of ​​long-term creep values ​​that may occur in order to make creep predictions for some creep-sensitive structures, and then take corresponding measures to eliminate or reduce the possibility that creep will affect the structure. The adverse effects.