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对中国近29年第三产业产出缺口进行了估计,并对未来两年进行了预测,发现我国第三产业产出缺口呈频繁周期性波动,波动幅度有随时间减小的趋势,短时间内第三产业产出有较大的下行压力。基于通径分析法分析了各因素对我国第三产业产出缺口的影响,发现古典经济增长理论中的技术研发、资本积累、人口增长对我国第三产业产出有至关重要的作用,金融发展、基础交通设施建设、城镇人均可支配收入影响也十分显著;人口老龄化负向影响最为强烈,居民收入差距负向影响也较为显著。
We estimate the output gap of the tertiary industry in the past 29 years in China and predict the next two years. We find that the output gap of the tertiary industry fluctuates frequently and fluctuates with the trend of decreasing in time, Within the tertiary industry output has greater downward pressure. Based on the path analysis method, the paper analyzes the impact of various factors on the output gap of the tertiary industry in our country. It is found that the R & D, capital accumulation and population growth in the classical theory of economic growth play an important role in the output of the tertiary industry in our country. Development and basic traffic facilities construction. The per capita disposable income in urban areas is also very significant. The negative impact of population aging is the strongest, and the negative impact of household income disparity is also significant.