论文部分内容阅读
利用1995—2013年中国农产品出口的HS92六位编码数据,采用H-K测度方法测度中国农产品出口增长的二元边际,在此基础上,构建面板数据模型对农产品出口增长的二元边际影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,中国农产品的出口增长由集约边际和扩展边际共同拉动,但集约边际起主要的贡献作用,其贡献率在2003年以后到达70%以上。经济规模对集约边际有显著的正影响,农业附加值占GDP的比重、贸易成本、经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响。农业附加值占GDP的比重、与中国签订区域经济一体化协定对扩展边际有显著的正影响,贸易成本、人均GDP年增长率对扩展边际有显著的负影响。经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响,扩展边际具有“稳定器”作用,这为解释中国农产品出口增长脆弱性问题提供了新的视角并具有丰富政策含义。
Using the six-digit coding of HS92 for China’s agricultural products from 1995 to 2013 and the binary measure of the growth of China’s agricultural exports by using the HK measurement method, a panel data model is used to test the binary marginal factors affecting the growth of agricultural exports analysis. The results show that the export growth of China’s agricultural products is driven by both the intensive margin and the expanded margin, but the intensive margin plays a major role in the export growth. Its contribution rate has reached more than 70% after 2003. The economic scale has a significant positive impact on the intensive marginalization. The added value of agriculture as a share of GDP, the trade cost and the economic crisis have a significant negative impact on the intensive margin. The added value of agriculture as a share of GDP and the signing of a regional economic integration agreement with China have a significant positive impact on the expansion margin. The trade cost and the annual growth rate of per capita GDP have a significant negative impact on the expansion margin. The economic crisis has a significant negative impact on the intensive margin and the expansion margin has the role of “stabilizer.” This provides a new perspective and policy implications for explaining the issue of the growth vulnerability of China’s agricultural exports.