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中国2012年的经济增长速度几乎是2007年增长平均速度14.2%的一半,可预计“十二五”经济平均增长速度大致在8%上下,从GDP平减指数来评价,中国经济已进入通缩,这意味着中国经济告别了新世纪十年10.5%的两位数高经济增长时代。中国经济“十二五”期间已开始进入减速发展阶段,“十三五”预计将进一步减速,在预计的未来十年甚至更长的时间里,经济基本处于一个减速通道,可理解为是由“结构性”引起的中长期经济减速。因此,常规化的总量宏观政策已经无法对冲结构性减速的调整,需要结构性的改革,以便在基础框架下应对“结构性”减速带来的经济增长的不确定性,建立新的体制机制完成走向“减速增效”的均衡发展道路。
China’s economic growth in 2012 was almost half that of the average growth rate of 14.2% in 2007, and the average economic growth rate during the “12th Five-Year Plan” can be estimated at about 8%. According to the GDP deflator, China’s economy has entered Deflation means that the Chinese economy has bid farewell to the era of double-digit high-growth of 10.5% in the decade of the new century. During the period of “12th Five-Year Plan”, China’s economy has begun to enter a stage of slowdown and development. Its “13th Five-Year Plan” is expected to further slow down. In the coming 10 years or even longer, the economy will basically be in a deceleration channel. It is understood that the “long-term” economic slowdown caused by “structural”. Therefore, the conventional macroeconomic policies have not been able to hedge the structural slowdown and require structural reforms to deal with the uncertainty of economic growth brought about by the “structural” slowdown under the basic framework and establish a new Institutional mechanisms to achieve the balanced development of “slowdown efficiency”.