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【目的/意义】随着移动互联网技术的飞速发展,社交网络信息数量呈现爆炸式增长,民众对于热点事件的评论形成强大的舆情力量,因此对舆情的分析与监控成为目前重点关注的问题。【方法/过程】为此,本文基于GARCH模型,以“甘肃白银连环杀人案”事件为例,对网络舆情的波动性进行研究。【结果/结论】通过舆情数据的收集和分析,研究结果表明,该新闻舆论出现与GARCH模型的特点相一致,模型和数据可以通过调整参数实现完美拟合。
[Purpose / Significance] With the rapid development of mobile Internet technology, the number of social network information has exploded, and people’s opinions on hot events have formed a strong force of public opinion. Therefore, the analysis and monitoring of public opinion have become the key issues of current concern. [Method / Process] To this end, this article based on the GARCH model to “Gansu silver serial murder case ” incident as an example, to study the volatility of online public opinion. [Results / Conclusion] Through the collection and analysis of public opinion data, the research results show that the public opinion appears consistent with the characteristics of GARCH model, and the model and data can be perfectly fitted by adjusting the parameters.