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基于全球长期减排目标可能对我国碳排放构成的约束,以及国内能源资源的禀赋实际,加快实施我国碳市场健康发展成为必然选择。基于协同理论及复杂系统理论,从系统子系统角度对碳市场进行功能分析,将泛碳市场系统分为包含需求、供给、交易子系统的核心碳市场系统,以及支持子系统,构建了我国碳市场系统的模型;从复杂系统视角对影响因素进行提取,运用主成分分析法识别系统序参量,碳交易量、碳交易价格、人均GDP、绿化面积为影响系统发展方向的序参量;根据序参量建立系统演化的灰分方程,分析我国碳市场发展过程中的协同情况。分析结果表明:各子系统对于整个系统的影响力度相差较大,反映了我国碳市场各子系统的协同程度较低的现象;各子系统的相互作用也证明了我国碳市场协同发展的正向性;其中尤其应该注意,交易子系统包含了碳市场系统的主要信息,而其协同发展程度较低。针对以上研究,提出了我国在发展碳市场过程中促进其协同度的相关政策与建议。
It is an inevitable choice to speed up the implementation of the healthy development of China’s carbon market based on the possible constraints that China’s long-term emission reduction targets will have on China’s carbon emissions and the reality of domestic energy resources. Based on the theory of synergetics and complex system theory, the carbon market is analyzed from the perspective of system subsystem. The market system of ubiquitous carbon is divided into the core carbon market system including demand, supply and transaction subsystem, as well as the support subsystem. Market system model; extract the influencing factors from the perspective of complex systems; identify the system order parameters, carbon trading volume, carbon transaction price, per capita GDP, green area as the order parameters that influence the direction of system development by principal component analysis; The establishment of a systematic evolution of the ash equation, analysis of the development of China’s carbon market in the process of coordination. The analysis results show that: the impact of subsystems on the entire system is quite different, which reflects the low degree of synergy of subsystems in China’s carbon market; the interaction of subsystems also proves that the synergy of carbon markets in China is positive In particular, it should be noted that the trading subsystem contains the main information of the carbon market system and its degree of synergy is low. In view of the above research, this paper puts forward some relevant policies and suggestions on how to promote their synergy in the development of carbon market in our country.