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利用非参数Mann-Kandall趋势检验法和线性趋势法分析了塔河流域枯水流量变化特征,并探讨了其可能的成因与影响。研究结果表明:(1)塔河流域河源径流量主要集中在6-8月,塔河干流径流量变化大于源流,流量主要集中在7-9月;(2)卡群站枯水流量在1999年前呈增大趋势,之后呈减小趋势;其余各站枯水流量呈先减后增的趋势。枯水流量增大的主要原因是气温和降雨量的提高;(3)枯水出现时间与干旱年份较为一致,能很好反映流域的干旱情况。
The non-parametric Mann-Kandall trend test and linear trend method were used to analyze the characteristics of the low water flow in the Tahe River Basin. The possible causes and effects were also discussed. The results show that: (1) The river source flow in the Tarim River Basin is mainly concentrated in June-August, while the runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River is larger than that of the source. The flow mainly concentrates in July-September. (2) It showed an increasing trend years ago, and then showed a decreasing trend. The dry flow of the remaining stations showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The main reasons for the increase of low flow rate are the increase of air temperature and rainfall; (3) The occurrence of dry flow is more consistent with the year of drought, which can well reflect the drought situation in the basin.