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财经界:你认为造成最近这次粮油价格突然上涨的原因是什么?是由于粮食供给减少。还是因为需求有比较大的增加呢? 宋国青:应该这么说,从1999年到现在,粮价一直大幅低于供求平衡的价格。在目前这种价格下,农民一年生产的粮食跟国内需求有相当大的缺口。缺口有多大,大家有不同的估计。低估也有3000万吨。根据我的估算,目前,包括库存损耗在内的中国粮食年度总消费估计接近5.1亿吨,今年的总供给(即国内产量加净进口)估计4.5亿吨弱。所以我的估计今年粮食缺
Financial Sector: What do you think caused the recent sharp rise in oil and gas prices? It is due to the decrease of food supply. Or because of the demand for a larger increase? Song Guoqing: It should be said that from 1999 to the present, the price of grain has been significantly lower than the balance between supply and demand prices. At this current price, the grain produced by farmers in one year has a considerable gap with domestic demand. How big the gap, we have different estimates. There are also underestimated 30 million tons. According to my estimation, at present, the total annual food consumption in China, including stockpile depletion, is estimated at nearly 510 million tons. The total supply (ie domestic output plus net imports) this year is estimated to be 450 million tons weak. So my estimate of food shortage this year