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运用1980~2015年总量数据和2000~2015年省级面板数据,测度中国城乡收入差距演变趋势及各地区变化趋势差异,并进一步分析其背后的影响因素,得到以下结论:改革开放以来中国城乡收入差距有所增加,在分析期间呈现出波动式变化趋势;分地区来看,各地区城乡收入差距变化趋势有所差异,但在中等收入阶段均呈现出明显的倒U型特征;在各影响因素中,市场化进程对城乡收入差距的影响并不显著,城乡居民人均收入比值、对外开放扩大了中国城乡之间的收入差距,城镇化进程缩小了中国城乡间收入差距;人均GDP与泰尔指数二次项回归系数显著为负,说明中等收入阶段中国经济发展水平与城乡收入差距确实存在倒U型的关系。
By using the total data from 1980 to 2015 and the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, this paper measures the evolution trend of urban-rural income disparity in China and the differences among different regions, and further analyzes the influencing factors behind it. The conclusions are as follows: Since the reform in China’s urban and rural areas The income gap has increased, showing a fluctuating trend during the analysis period. In terms of regions, the trend of income gap between urban and rural areas varies in different regions, but the inverted U-shaped characteristics show a clear inverted U shape in the middle-income stage. Among the factors, the process of marketization has no significant effect on the income gap between urban and rural areas. The per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents, opening to the outside world has widened the income gap between urban and rural areas in China. The urbanization process has narrowed the income gap between urban and rural areas in China. The index quadratic regression coefficient is significantly negative, indicating that the middle-income stage of China’s economic development level and urban-rural income gap does exist inverted U-type relationship.